A new study conducted by the University of Oxford suggests that perhaps as much as half the population has been infected by COVID-19, commonly known as coronavirus. They also suggest that ‘Herd Immunity’ may be the answer to cure coronavirus.
Studies provide some welcome good news
Because testing regimens across the world have varied vastly, the actual mortality and hospitalisation rates of COVID-19 have been hard to accurately identify. Modelling conducted by researchers at the University of Oxford provides some welcome good news.
The research presents a very different view of the epidemic
If the results are verified, they imply that out of 1,000 people infected by COVID-19, 1 person becomes ill enough to need hospital treatment. Sunetra Gupta, professor of theoretical epidemiology, who led the study, stated that the vast majority develop very mild symptoms or none at all.
“We need to immediately begin large-scale serological surveys – antibody testing – to access what stage of the epidemic we are in now”
The modelling by Oxford’s Evolutionary Ecology of Infectious Disease group suggests that COVID-19 reached the UK by mid-January at the latest. Many emerging infections, according to historical records spread invisibly. In the case of COVID-19, according to the team that conducted this study, spread invisibly for more than a month before the first transmissions within the UK were officially recorded at the end of February.
Prof. Gupta has not yet criticised the government for shutting down the country to suppress viral spread, as the accuracy of the Oxford model has not yet been confirmed, even if it is correct, social distancing will help reduce the number of people becoming infected and provide much-needed relief to the NHS.
The model brings back ‘herd immunity’ as a potential coronavirus cure
This is an idea where the virus will stop spreading when enough people have become resistant to it because they have already been infected. The government abandoned this unofficial strategy – allowing the controlled spread of infection – after various scientific advisers said that this would overwhelm the NHS with people in need of critical help.
The oxford results once verified could mean that the country had already acquired substantial herd immunity through the invisible spread of COVID-19 over a period of 2 months. The only way to verify these results is through mass testing, and then the current restriction could be removed sooner than predicted by ministers.
How do you become immune?
Currently, there are two ways to become immune to infection. One way is through the natural process of catching it and building immunity; whilst the other is by having a vaccination against it.
Due to our natural body’s ability to build immunity, once enough of the population had an infection, or has had a vaccine against it, the infection is no longer as active within the population and doesn’t spread from person to person as easily.
This implies that those who either haven’t had the infection or can’t have the vaccine are more protected. This term is referred to as herd immunity and has been referred to as a coronavirus cure.
The Oxford Group, University of Cambridge and Kent are working together to start antibody testing
A collaboration of scientific professionals across these three institutes is now working together to start antibody testing on the general population as soon as possible. They are planning to use specialised “neutralisation assays which provide a reliable readout of protective immunity”, Professor Gupta said. They are all aiming to start testing later this week to obtain introductory results within a few days.
Useful links
Read the official report of COVID-19 by the NHS
World Health Organisation are keeping billions informed through their live text service